When we speak with busy professionals and business owners, one message keeps coming through: success in investing isn’t about clever tweaks or chasing the next headline—it’s about embracing the full opportunity set and staying the course.
At 25 Financial, we regularly remind clients of two critical truths:
1. Holding both U.S. and international stocks gives you access to more of the world’s growth, and over the past decade our clients who bought international when it was out of favor are now being rewarded.
2. Being in the market matters. Jumping out, trying to pick the next winner, or switching strategies based on fear or stimulus often costs you far more than you gain.
Global Diversification Matters
Think about the world outside the U.S. for a moment. A large portion of global equity value resides abroad—if you remain U.S.-only, you’re leaving half of the performers on the bench. More importantly, the performance of U.S. versus international stocks doesn’t follow a straight line. Some years U.S. leads, some years international leads. Over a full investment lifetime you want both.
Don’t forget the “lost decade”: From roughly 2000–2009, U.S. stocks were essentially flat—the S&P 500 delivered around 0% total return for the decade. Over that same period, international developed markets (MSCI EAFE Index) gained roughly +17% cumulatively, while emerging markets rose more than +150%. Investors who held global exposure through that stretch saw dramatically better results.
The key takeaway: staying globally diversified isn’t just theoretical—it plays out in real dollars.
The Dangers of Timing and Picking Stocks
Now let’s consider the other side: trying to time the market or picking the few winning stocks. Both are risky.
Stock-timing risk:
Studies show that missing just a handful of the best market days seriously drags performance.
Take a $100,000 portfolio invested in U.S. equities over 30 years at an annualized 10% return: this would have grown to $2,242,804.
But if the investor missed even 10 of the best days, their cumulative total return drops by 54% and the ending value would have been $1,027,510, reducing earnings by over $1 million.
Stock-picking risk:
Research shows that in the U.S. since 1926–2022, just about 3.4% of companies accounted for all net wealth creation.
Imagine: you’d need to pick winners in a tiny subset of firms and hold them over decades to match market-level wealth creation. That’s a very high bar.
What this means for you
If you’ve underweighted your international allocation because “U.S. has been king,” consider whether your portfolio is positioned for the next cycle.
If you’re tempted to move to cash when markets wobble, remember you might simultaneously abandon the rebound days.
If you’re picking individual stocks and hoping to catch the next winner, consider the odds that only ~3% of companies produce nearly all net wealth.
By staying invested globally, and resisting timing moves, you’re tilting the odds in your favor.
Conclusion
You don’t need to be perfect. What you do need is global reach, staying the course, and avoiding the traps. At 25 Financial we’ve seen clients benefit from having held international exposure and remained invested—and we’ve seen how timing or picking bets can erode wealth. The market rewards those who stay in the game and stay diversified.
If you’d like to review your international sizing, compare your U.S./international split, or stress-test your “what-if I move to cash” scenario—let’s talk.
Disclaimers: This article does not constitute professional advice. Information is accurate at the time of writing but may be subject to change.
The content above is for informational purposes only and is not individualized investment advice. Please consult with a professional financial advisor and perform your own analysis before making any decisions. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances.
25 Financial Advisors are not tax professionals. You should consult with your tax professional before taking actions which affect your tax situation.
Sources:
https://www.centerfinplan.com/money-centered/2022/6/7/part-2-are-international-equities-dead
